Insiders suggest that Bitcoin ETF approval is inevitable. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas says expectations vary from four to six months.
Bloomberg’s senior ETF analyst Balchunas cites the earnings call with Mike Novogratz, CEO at Galaxy Digital. Novogratz, in his turn, referred to his sources in BlackRock and Invesco.
Per Novogratz, the question of Bitcoin (BTC) ETF approval is “when, not if.”
Moreover, Balchunas expects that the SEC’s decision may come this week. The number is deduced from the SEC’s deadline to respond within 45 days of the applications filed.
However, CNBC reports that the SEC can extend the deadline to a maximum of 240 days. It could bring the answer date to Jan. 10, 2024, based on a filing date of May 15, 2023. Similarly, the SEC delayed its decision on the rule change proposal to list a first-of-its-kind physical carbon allowances ETF last month.
Balchunas also noted that spot Bitcoin ETFs are going through the same process and could face similar delays.
This denial could mean a parallel for spot Bitcoin ETF hopefuls since the process for the carbon ETF is the “exact same” as the spot Bitcoin ETFs. It means there might potentially be bad news in store for the industry, at least in the interim.
In a follow-up tweet, Eric Balchunas highlights that this announcement should place equal significance on the intense competitive struggle for market dominance that will unfold. He cited Cathie Wood, CEO of Ark Invest, stating,
“We’re going to fight like cats and dogs for market share.”
Cathie Wood, CEO of Ark Invest
This notion, recently highlighted by Cathie Wood on ETF IQ, underscores the reality that all these ETFs will essentially serve the same purpose of holding Bitcoin. This will elevate the role of marketing campaigns, which are anticipated to be both pivotal and potentially overtly assertive and weighty.
The SEC has previously rejected all spot Bitcoin ETF proposals. The regulator cited concerns about a lack of a “comprehensive surveillance-sharing agreement with a regulated market of significant size related to spot bitcoin.” However, the SEC approved Bitcoin ETF futures, as of June.
The wave of applications that began with Blackrock is believed to be different due to its introduction of an arrangement for “surveillance sharing” with established exchanges such as the Nasdaq and Cboe.